By the numbers… A research institute reveals when the defensive and offensive munitions of America and Israel will run out

Exclusive Follow-ups – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

The RUSI Institute revealed that the first sixteen days of the American-Israeli war on Iran exposed a profound shift in the nature of modern wars, where the ability to rearm and sustain military stockpiles has become the decisive factor for endurance, rather than just field superiority.

It explained that the American-Israeli coalition forces used more than 11,000 munitions during this period, at a cost approaching $26 billion, noting that the first four days saw the launch of over 5,000 projectiles, before the conflict transformed into a long war of attrition.

It pointed out that the continuation of Iranian attacks, despite their reduction, maintained daily pressure leading to the gradual depletion of stockpiles, especially with reliance on expensive interceptor missiles to counter low-cost threats.

It explained that the strategic risk lies in the rapid depletion of advanced munitions, confirming that some vital categories of missiles are approaching critical levels within short periods of time.

It confirmed that the analysis shows that the US Army may face running out of ground attack missiles such as ATACMS and PrSM, in addition to THAAD air defense missiles, within about a month or less of the fighting continuing at the same pace.

It added that the situation for Israel is more critical, as it is expected that Arrow interceptor missiles will be almost completely depleted by the end of March if consumption continues at current rates.

It noted that this accelerated depletion reflects a significant gap between the rate of usage and production capacity, as replenishing these stockpiles could take years, especially for complex systems.

It explained that some munitions, such as long-range cruise missiles, might require a replenishment period of up to five years or more due to manufacturing complexity and reliance on limited components and sensitive supply chains.

It indicated that this reality forces decision-makers to make difficult choices, as the continuation of operations could lead to reaching a critical point that forces the forces to reduce reliance on advanced systems and increase operational risks.

It noted that the depletion of these missiles doesn’t mean the cessation of fighting, but rather a decline in defensive efficiency and an increased likelihood of missile and drone attacks penetrating defenses.

It affirmed that the depletion of stockpiles within weeks, compared to years to replenish them, represents one of the most serious challenges revealed by the war, redefining the concept of military superiority.

It pointed out that this situation reinforces the concept of the “second theater tax,” where the depletion of missiles on one front weakens the ability to deter on other fronts and reduces support for allies.

It concluded by noting that the decisive factor in modern wars is no longer just possessing advanced weapons but the ability to maintain and renew them within a timeframe that allows operations to continue without reaching a breaking point.