Why did Saudi Arabia resort to using old ballistic missiles despite possessing an advanced air fleet?
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Military experts and analysts considered that Saudi Arabia’s use of an old Chinese DF-15 ballistic missile to target Sana’a forces on the Marib front raises wide questions about the military reasons that pushed Riyadh to resort to a ballistic missile to strike a moving front, at a time when it possesses one of the largest warplane fleets in the region.
The experts pointed out that images circulating in recent hours from the Marib front showed what was said to be a Saudi use of a Chinese DF-15 ballistic missile.
They noted that Saudi Arabia possesses hundreds of advanced warplanes, including F-15 and Typhoon fighters capable of carrying out wide-scale strikes using large quantities of bombs and guided munitions.
The experts explained that a single F-15 fighter can carry several tons of bombs and munitions in one sortie, while a DF-15 missile requires preparation and launch procedures and carries a limited warhead compared to the payload that fighters can carry.
The experts questioned the reasons that push Saudi Arabia to use a ballistic missile to strike a front where forces and vehicles are constantly moving, while under normal circumstances it can send several aircraft and drop tons of guided bombs on the same targets.
The experts believed that there is a factor that forced Saudi Arabia to use the ballistic missile, represented by the pressures that the logistical chain on which the Saudi air force relies in the south of the Kingdom has begun to face.
They indicated that Sana’a’s attacks in recent days were not random, explaining that they repeatedly and precisely targeted bases and facilities of direct importance to Saudi Arabia’s ability to manage its aerial operations.
The experts noted that King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait was bombed more than once with missiles and drones, affirming that it is one of the most important bases on which Saudi Arabia relies to carry out and support its aerial operations over Yemen.
The experts considered that targeting bases, facilities, and capabilities linked to energy and fuel may constitute direct pressure on the logistical structure on which the Saudi air force relies.
They explained that Saudi Arabia’s possession of hundreds of aircraft does not mean that these aircraft are capable of operating independently, noting that operating an air force requires an integrated chain of secure bases, aircraft fuel, munitions, maintenance operations, spare parts, ground crews, warehouses, and logistical facilities.
The experts affirmed that targeting this chain does not necessarily target the number of aircraft themselves but rather the ability to keep those aircraft in the air and carry out dozens of sorties daily.
The experts indicated that the vastness of Saudi Arabia’s area adds another factor to the military equation, explaining that if operating aircraft from bases such as Khamis Mushait and Abha becomes more difficult, and Saudi Arabia is forced to rely more heavily on more distant bases such as Taif or bases located in the center and north of the Kingdom, then the distances that aircraft must cover to reach Yemen will increase significantly.
They pointed out that increased distances mean consuming larger quantities of fuel per sortie, increasing flight hours, and raising the need for maintenance operations, in addition to increased reliance on aerial refueling aircraft.
The experts affirmed that these factors may ultimately lead to reducing the number of aerial sorties that Saudi Arabia can carry out daily, even if there is no change in the total number of aircraft it possesses.
They added that Saudi Arabia’s possession of a large number of aircraft does not necessarily mean the ability to operate the same number at the same rate if the bases, facilities, and logistical capabilities on which those aircraft rely are subjected to continuous pressure.
Regarding munitions, the experts indicated that the largest part of the Saudi air force relies on American systems and aircraft, and that a large proportion of the bombs and munitions used by those aircraft depend on American supplies, including guided munitions and JDAM systems.
They explained that during the previous war on Yemen, Saudi Arabia was able to use large numbers of American bombs and munitions and obtain new supplies continuously. However, the experts noted that the great pressures on American stockpiles due to military developments and regional wars may make Washington’s ability to compensate for what Saudi Arabia consumes of munitions more complicated compared to previous years.
They indicated that Washington’s approval in recent days of a new deal for Saudi Arabia including thousands of bombs and guided munitions reflects the continued need to reinforce Saudi stockpiles of aerial munitions.
The experts believed that these factors combined make the use of the DF-15 missile more explainable from a military and operational standpoint.
They explained that the ballistic missile does not need to operate an F-15 fighter, does not need aircraft fuel, and does not require the use of aerial refueling aircraft, nor does it directly depend on the same air bases that are subjected to attacks in southern Saudi Arabia.
They added that using the ballistic missile also does not require consuming aerial bombs and guided munitions, a large part of which depends on American supplies.
The experts considered that the use of the DF-15 may not be merely a show of force or a political message, but rather reflects an attempt to use alternative strike means that reduce reliance on the air force and the logistical structure that is under increasing pressure.
They affirmed that using a ballistic missile against a target that, under normal circumstances, could have been dealt with via several aircraft and the dropping of tons of bombs may represent one of the most prominent indicators of changing military and operational calculations.
The experts concluded by indicating that Saudi Arabia’s use of the DF-15 missile on the Marib front may be an indicator that the repeated Yemeni strikes have begun to actually affect the logistical chain on which the operation of the Saudi air force in the south of the Kingdom is based.
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