Analysts: No indicators of a near political settlement… Talk of peace is a facade for a new aggression

Follow-ups – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

What is happening in Saudi Arabia these days is nothing but signs of a broad regional repositioning involving Washington and Tel Aviv, and its furthest target appears to be Yemen.

A multi-layered mobilization managed jointly by Washington, Riyadh, and Tel Aviv, aiming to reshape the theater of pressure around Yemen and the Red Sea after months that exposed the nakedness of American deterrence in the waterways.

Simultaneous messages from land and sea, where a practical ceiling is being built for military action ‘beneath total war’; a ceiling being tested through exercises, inaugurated with warning systems, and wrapped in the language of “partnerships” and high-level visits.

We start from land: The “Quincy-1” exercise that launched at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin Base in the California desert, in America.

The name itself is unimportant; what matters is that Saudi and American ground units are training in an environment simulating open deserts and maneuver-fire operations, on integration in command, control, and joint operations, in a way that restores mutual confidence after a turbulent year at sea… It is a readiness workshop for a potential border battle or at least to raise the “credibility of the threat” along the Al-Jawf–Najran–Jizan lines.

The Saudi and American announcement is clear in describing the goal: “enhancing readiness, exchanging expertise, and raising integration”—known military phrases used when wanting to say that the joint force is testing “scenarios.”

From the sea, Jeddah opened its waters to “Red Wave-8,” a maneuver gathering six Red Sea littoral states led by the Saudi Navy. Its apparent title is “protecting passages,” but its actual purpose is building a political-operational umbrella to redraw the “security engineering” in the sea in which Sana’a imposed its equation last year.

The maneuver is a declaration of will test a regional alignment under Riyadh’s umbrella, with Egyptian and Pakistani presence, coastal African parties, and a multi-dimensional implicit message.

Inside Saudi Arabia, the signals are no less significant: testing alarm sirens and the “Cellular Early Warning” platform in Riyadh, Tabuk, and other regions is reported in the news as if it’s a service matter, but in a national security reading, it’s a “calibration” of the state’s ability to absorb shock and raise civilian readiness at a moment when the skies could heat up. These tests—officially announced in October and then updated in early November—align with operational preparations.

On the Washington axis, policy advances in line with the military… Meetings of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman with senior officials in the White House, State Department, and Pentagon preceded and coincided with the Crown Prince’s anticipated visit to Washington.

The statements are brief, but the list of names and context is enough to say that “Red Sea and Yemen security” is at the heart of the discussions and that arms files are being used as part of a package to “repair the alliance.” Here, the F-35 file surfaces again; reference reports confirm the Saudi request has overcome a major hurdle inside the Pentagon.

On a completely parallel track, there are enemy attempts on the intelligence front on the ground, where Sana’a’s Interior Ministry announced the dismantling of an espionage network linked to a joint “American–Israeli–Saudi” operations room based in Riyadh.

These intelligence moves confirm that the enemy is pushing its spies and agents in the field to prepare the ground for an upcoming aggressive action in an attempt to preempt the battle and disrupt the internal front… However, the fall of these networks into the hands of the Yemeni security apparatus proves once again that Sana’a is present in the field, monitoring, preempting, and thwarting all aggression plots before they are born.

What does all of the above mean politically? It means that talk of a “political solution” with Riyadh is not based on facts on the ground.

Washington and Riyadh are shifting the equation from “managing a ceasefire” to “building conditions for negotiation from a higher position”: land, air, and sea exercises rebuilding operational confidence; alarm tests reassuring the interior; heavy arms supply chains brought to the table; and high-level meetings producing an image that the alliance is cohesive again after the confusion at sea. These are not signals from a party hiding an agreement; these are signals from a party raising the value of its pressure card before any negotiation session.

From the joint land maneuvers between Saudi and American forces on US soil, to the naval maneuvers in Jeddah with the participation of six Red Sea littoral states, to the alarm tests and deployment of air defense systems on the borders—all are signals that go beyond “training” to building an integrated scene preparing for a major military operation, or at least to rebuilding the balance of power after the crushing defeat suffered by the US Navy in the Red and the Arabian Seas.

It is clear that Riyadh is not acting alone but is coordinating its steps within a shared American-Israeli vision, betting on time, and hiding its intentions behind facades of dialogue and mediation.

The anticipated visit of Mohammed bin Salman to Washington, the Pentagon’s talk of advanced negotiations to sell F-35 fighter jets, and the intensive meetings held by his Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman with senior American officials are not disparate details but rather a rebuilding of the military alliance.

Washington, whose face was broken in the Red Sea, can’t close the file as a passing incident; that would mean admitting its helplessness against a smaller but more determined adversary… It realizes that its loss to Sana’a, morally and strategically, does not concern Yemen alone but extends to all its allies in the Gulf, Europe, and the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is working to restore prestige with weapons and maneuvers.

But conversely, there is a different Yemeni reading of the scene… Sana’a sees what is happening as nothing but a desperate attempt to escape the American predicament, and that all these displays do not hide the reality of the failure in the Red Sea, where the myth of American defenses was shattered, and the prestige of aircraft carriers dissipated before precise Yemeni missiles… For Washington and Tel Aviv, allowing this reality to turn into a new norm in the regional deterrence balance cannot be permitted, because Yemen’s success in imposing the naval blockade equation threatens the entire “Maritime Middle East” project, from Eilat Port to the Suez Canal passages, and for this reason there is no real talk of peace, but of reopening a front to undermine the Yemeni equation.

Saudi Arabia, which experienced war for years and reaped only loss, sees in this tripartite coordination an opportunity to return to the field with a clear American–Israeli cover, believing it is sufficient to reimpose its old conditions. But it also lives with a dual anxiety: on one hand, it fears that Yemen, after its victories in the Red Sea, will force it to pay the compensations demanded by Sana’a; on the other hand, it wants to enter the stage of “international stability” ahead of hosting the World Cup, fearing that this global event will show it under the pressure of Yemeni missiles.

Therefore, Riyadh leans towards the option of escalation more than the option of settlement, driven by the delusion that international conditions have ripened to resume the attack.

The UAE, for its part, is a silent but active partner; it has never abandoned its ambitions for the islands and ports and knows that any political settlement with Sana’a would force it to stop the organized plunder of Yemeni wealth in the south and on the coast. Therefore, it prefers to remain under the American position, even if the price is igniting a new round of war.

As for Israel, it sees Yemen as a real threat, especially after the support battle for Gaza.

Events inside Yemen reveal the dimensions of these preparations: the movement of Saudi brigades belonging to the so-called “Nation Shield” in Ras Al-Arra and Bab Al-Mandeb and the expansion of military positioning in the Al-Jawf deserts—all are signals of an intent to ignite new fronts under a cover of maneuvers and reconnaissance.

But Sana’a understands the game. The equation it established in the Red Sea can’t be broken except at a cost greater than its adversaries can bear. What happened during the past year—from breaking the prestige of the US Navy to paralyzing the navigation of the Israeli enemy to the disintegration of Western-American alliances—has made Yemen a central player that can’t be bypassed.

Given these data, the indicators suggest that Washington will not allow Riyadh to implement what was agreed with Sana’a, that Tel Aviv will not accept a maritime equation that suffocates its expansionist project in the Red Sea, and that Riyadh wants to evade implementing what was agreed with Sana’a.

Therefore, all talk of political solutions is nothing but a cover for a new stage of aggression being prepared under the table.

And if there is anything Sana’a must do today, it is not to wait for the mirage of negotiations, because waiting in a game like this means handing over the initiative to the adversary.

It is clear that the region is heading towards a new test; Yemen will be at its center again… The US needs a victory to restore its allies’ confidence, Saudi Arabia wants to evade its obligations towards Yemen due to its aggression, and Israel wants to restore its ability to move in the Red Sea. But what this trio fails to realize is that the time when “deterrence” was manufactured with military bases is over… Now, deterrence is manufactured from Sana’a, with missiles.

Source / “Radar 360” platform on platform X