An intelligence report reveals a cold war between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Follow-ups – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:
A report issued by the Bloomsbury Institute for Intelligence and Security revealed a notable deterioration in relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE after years of a close partnership previously described as a cornerstone of Gulf stability.
The report indicated that accumulated disagreements on regional files and divergent visions regarding influence and strategic positioning in the Middle East have pushed the relationship into what resembles an undeclared “cold war” between the two parties.
The report explained that military and political cooperation in Yemen, which began in 2015 within the Saudi-led coalition to confront the “Houthis,” was at the time a model of unity of stance between the two countries. However, this coordination has gradually eroded as each party seeks to achieve its own agenda within the Yemeni arena.
While Riyadh continued to support the “internationally recognized Yemeni government,” Abu Dhabi moved to support the Southern Transitional Council, an entity seeking autonomy in the south and control over strategic ports and commercial routes.
According to the report, this disparity deepened the level of mutual suspicions, as Saudi Arabia expressed concerns that forces linked to the UAE contribute to entrenching division within Yemen.
The rivalry is not confined to Yemen alone; the institute pointed to similar manifestations of indirect conflict in other arenas such as Syria and parts of the Horn of Africa, where both parties support different forces to secure long-term positions of influence.
The report’s authors believe that this behavior reflects a shift in the relationship from a strategic partnership to open regional competition.
On the Gulf level, the report warned that the intensifying Saudi-Emirati competition has contributed to weakening the unity of stance within the Gulf Cooperation Council, casting a shadow on the Council’s ability to adopt cohesive collective policies in facing regional crises.
It also revealed a decline in the level of political and military coordination and an increase in manifestations of strategic distrust between the two countries.
On the practical level, economic competition has led to a decline in cooperation in infrastructure and logistics projects, with the development of parallel ports, transport corridors, and supply chains instead of their integration, raising levels of duplication and operational friction.
Security-wise, the report described the race to provide economic aid and conclude arms deals with local allies as a factor that fuels conflicts rather than containing them and weakens chances of reaching sustainable political settlements.
It also warned that arming competing factions within the same arena has confused command and control structures and increased the likelihood of clashes within existing alliances.
The institute indicated that the growing independent military capabilities of local factions, alongside the declining ability of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to control escalation paths, increase the risk of sliding into miscalculated confrontations, which threatens regional security on a broader scale.
Economic repercussions and competition for investment:
Economically, the report viewed that the current shifts have reinforced a “zero-sum game” logic regarding capital, trade, and foreign investment, instead of encouraging regional integration.
The competing mega-projects in the fields of energy, transportation, and logistics, according to the institute, carry risks of resource misdistribution and the emergence of excess capacity in the long term, despite their ability to create temporary job opportunities.
Competition for dominance in the finance, ports, and energy center sectors also leads to increased transaction costs and market dispersion, which may weaken the confidence of international investors and undermine future efforts to diversify the economies of Gulf states.
The report addressed a set of temporal expectations for the trajectory of relations between the two countries. In the short term, over the next three months, political and media tensions are likely to escalate in the wake of the recent air strikes, with continued competition through local proxies in Yemen, especially around strategic ports, while the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between the two states remains low.
It also pointed to the possibility of limited mediation attempts by regional or international parties, without expecting a rapid breakthrough.
As for the medium term, within a period ranging from three to twelve months, competition is likely to become more organized and expand across several regional arenas, with the continued possibility of limited incidents between forces supported by both parties, without reaching a full-scale war.
In the long term, the report anticipated the entrenchment of a pattern of prolonged “cold war,” based on competing security alliances and parallel economic corridors, with the continued erosion of regional integration.