An Israeli Estimates: Washington fails to curb Yemen, and Israel loses confidence in American deterrence

The Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post said that the Yemeni front has become – as the newspaper describes it – the most burning front since October 7, and the most momentum among all the fronts opened after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.

Follow ups – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

The newspaper believes that the Yemeni armed forces, which were previously considered a marginal threat, have become the only party within the resistance axis that has not suffered strategic setbacks in recent months. On the contrary, they are still strongly engaged in the fighting, directing their attacks against Israeli and American targets, becoming – according to the newspaper’s description – the most active and determined force to continue the battle.

The Jerusalem Post reports that the US finds itself facing a dilemma similar to the one faced by Israel in Gaza, where the “enemy” does not appear to be highly sensitive to human losses or infrastructure destruction and does not seem to intend to retreat or modify its course under military pressure. The Yemeni operations that started last November have mainly targeted Israeli navigation in the Red Sea.

The newspaper indicates that the performance of the Yemeni armed forces does not show any signs of weakness, and that the US, despite the near-daily air strikes, has so far failed in dismantling the combat structure or influencing the command and control structure within Sana’a, which imposes on Washington two options: either a major escalation, including the possibility of a ground intervention, or the implicit acceptance of the continuation of this regional power in work and influence.

The report continues that a discussion has begun to surface in American and regional circles, especially after reports indicated perceptions within the pro-coalition Yemeni government that US strikes have weakened the capabilities of the Yemeni forces, which may provide an opportunity to launch a ground attack on the western coast, particularly in the vicinity of the port of Hudaydah. However, the newspaper expresses reservation about this hypothesis, pointing out that the experience of 2015 showed the weakness of the performance of the forces supported by the Gulf coalition despite the air support, and that a ground intervention against a solid and cohesive force like the Yemeni armed forces remains an adventure with uncertain consequences.

In the context of comparison, the report conveys that some of Washington’s allies in Yemen have noted what it described as the “rapid success” achieved by the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham in Syria, but the newspaper quickly adds that this comparison does not withstand structural differences, as it clearly indicates that the Yemeni armed forces are a force fundamentally different from the flabby regimes or traditional regular armies, as they are a highly organized combat structure with field experience and the ability to persist under pressure, making any bet on their rapid collapse a reckless and uncalculated gamble.

The Israeli estimates conclude with an interesting signal, as the Jerusalem Post hints that Israel no longer sees Washington as the decisive guarantor capable of imposing deterrence in the region, especially after its failure to change the rules of engagement in Yemen, and the decline of its prestige in the face of an opponent that is small in terms of resources, but has wide influence in terms of geopolitical and strategic action.

In this context, it appears that Washington is facing a pivotal moment not only related to Yemen, but to what remains of its image as a deterrent power in the Middle East.